Preview:

Nottingham Forest enter the second leg in full control after a dominant 3–0 win in Istanbul. As Fenerbahce failed to impress in the first leg, we see home win for the Forest. Their recent form sits at 1.30 PPG overall, but they have been defensively solid, keeping 50% clean sheets and conceding just 0.90 goals per match. At home, the Reds allow only 0.40 goals per game, supported by an xGA of 1.26, making them difficult to break down. Despite scoring just 1.00 goal per home match, the first-leg advantage gives them a comfortable platform.

Fenerbahce must chase a three-goal deficit, but their away numbers offer some hope: 2.60 PPG, 3.00 average total goals, and scoring in every away match (0% failed to score). Their xG away (1.82) also shows they reliably create chances. However, defensive fragility—conceding 1.33 goals per away game—combined with key absences significantly weakens their comeback prospects. Edson Alvarez injured is injured for the visitors, while both Oosterwolde and Guendouzi miss out through suspension. Additionally, important defender Milan Skriniar is a major doubt.

STATMASTER BET: Home Win @1.49

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